Category 4: Hurricane Earl Has Strengthened, Is Headed for Eastern Coast, Hurricane Warnings Issued (video)
Posted By Vicki McClure Davidson on September 2, 2010
Satellite image of Earl earlier this morning - Photo credit: NOAA
Hurricane warnings are being issued for Earl, which has been upgraded to a dangerous Cat 4 hurricane.
Hurricane Earl is headed for the East Coast.
From CNN, Earl, restrengthened to a Category 4, heads toward East Coast:
Hurricane warnings and watches stretched from North Carolina to Delaware and covered parts of Massachusetts on Wednesday as forecasters upgraded Hurricane Earl to a Category 4 storm and warned it will be approaching the East Coast by late Thursday.
Hurricane models have Earl passing close to North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Thursday night, the National Hurricane Center said in an 8 p.m. Wednesday forecast. “Only a small westward deviation of the track to the west would bring the core of the hurricane to the coast,” it said.
The center extended hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings northward through Massachusetts on Wednesday evening and said the storm’s track has shifted slightly to the west, closer to North Carolina’s Cape Hatteras.
Mandatory evacuation orders were issued for Ocracoke Island, on North Carolina’s Outer Banks, and Cape Lookout National Seashore, as well as Hatteras Island.
Earl had been downgraded to a Category 3 hurricane earlier Wednesday but was judged to be a Category 4 in the National Hurricane Center’s forecast on Wednesday at 5 p.m.
Earl’s maximum sustained winds have increased to near 135 mph and the storm is growing, the National Hurricane Center said.
Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach parts of the North Carolina coast by Thursday afternoon, with hurricane force winds arriving by late Thursday, the center said.
From Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, Intense Hurricane Earl barrels toward East coast:
At 8 a.m., Hurricane Earl was 355 miles south of Cape Hatteras, N.C., heading north-northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 145 miles per hour and Earl remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds out to 230 miles.
We imagine you have many questions about this dangerous storm, so here are some Qs and As:
What is expected for the D.C. Metro area?
At the moment, the track of Earl should be sufficiently far off the coast to only bring high clouds and an outside (20%) chance of some gusty showers.
Could these impacts be worse than expected and even bring severe conditions into the Washington metro area?
Yes but very unlikely. As hurricane track prediction is an imperfect science, there is a very slight possibility of significant storm effects in D.C. However, computer models have consistently kept Earl sufficiently far offshore, due to a cold front coming from the west that should push Earl away. Therefore, we’re confident that chances for heavy rain and wind in the metro region are low. The models (and the National Hurricane Center) would have to be catastrophically wrong for the D.C. metro region to experience a repeat of Hurricane Isabel, for example.
Closer to the coast, however, the margin for error is smaller — and even a slight shift in track closer to the shoreline (to the west) would mean more rain and wind, bigger waves and more damage. The Outer Banks of North Carolina, in particular, could experience devastating impacts if Earl maintains its current intensity and passes directly overhead. The more likely scenario, however, is that the core of Earl will remain offshore as it passes the Outer Banks, where serious impacts expected even though sustained hurricane-force winds are not a certainty.
What kind of flooding might occur in the tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay?
Minor flooding is possible, primarily overnight tonight. A Coastal Flood Advisory & Coastal Flood Watch are in effect for the tidal Potomac and Maryland Chesapeake Bay. From the National Weather Service in Sterling:
WHEN HURRICANE EARL REACHES IS CLOSEST POINT TO THE WATERS…OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA…TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY INCREASE FURTHER FOR THE WATERS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY…POTENTIALLY 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE SPEED AND PROXIMITY TO LAND OF HURRICANE EARL WILL BE KEY IN HOW HIGH WATER LEVELS GET. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
From Maryland Weather: Earl’s winds now at 145 mph; track unchanged:
A powerful and dangerous Hurricane Earl continued to steam toward the North Carolina Outer Banks early Thursday, with winds strengthening to 145 mph overnight. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for all of the Maryland and Delaware Atlantic coastline.
If forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are right, the Cat. 4 storm’s center, and its most dangerous effects, will stay offshore as the storm track curves gradually to the northeast and toward southeastern New England.
Weather service forecasters in Wakefield, Va. expect weather conditions in Ocean City will begin to deteriorate today, with winds peaking late Thursday and Friday between 29 and 34 mph, with gusts to 44 mph.
From USA Today, Cruise ships returning early to New York, Boston to ride out Hurricane Earl:
After knocking nearly a dozen cruise ships sailing in the Bahamas and the Caribbean off course in recent days, a northbound Hurricane Earl is now having an impact on vessels that sail to New England, Canada and Bermuda.
In the most dramatic fallout so far, Holland America says the 1,258-passenger Maasdam, currently on a seven-night sailing to Canada and New England, will return to its home port of Boston today two days ahead of schedule to ride out the storm at dock. Calls at Sydney and Halifax, Nova Scotia, as well as Bar Harbor, Maine have been canceled.
“This will put the ship safely alongside (a dock) in Boston ahead of the storm’s anticipated arrival,” the line says in statement. “Guests are welcome to stay onboard the ship until Saturday morning.”
Holland America also has announced the 2,104-passenger Eurodam, currently on a trans-Atlantic cruise to New York, will call Friday at Halifax instead Sydney, Nova Scotia to avoid the storm. The ship will remain at sea on Saturday and Sunday to stay out of the storm’s path before arriving in New York on Monday.
ALEXANDRIA, Va. — Four days before 2008′s Hurricane Hanna struck the South Carolina coast and ran up the eastern U.S. seaboard, she was downgraded to a tropical storm. But that still didn’t stop the damage to hundreds of recreational boats deluged by the storm’s intense rains.
And with Hurricane Earl now forecast on a parallel course just eastward of Hanna’s old track, Boat Owners Association of The United States (BoatUS) is again urging boaters from the Mid-Atlantic to New England to protect their vessels from the forecasted heavy precipitation.
“Normally it’s a hurricane’s storm surge and high winds that cause the most damage to recreational boats,” said BoatUS Director of Damage Avoidance Bob Adriance. “But a hurricane doesn’t have to score a direct hit to sink boats. Heavy rains can cause significant damage, especially with boats stored on lifts, or those stored in the water that have their scuppers or drain holes clogged by leaves or other debris.”
Adriance says boaters should be prepared to remove boats from lifts and store them in a safe area and ensure drains remain clear and any drain plugs are removed.
Or, if your boat is stored in a slip it’s a good idea to add extra dock lines and chafe protection. With any boat, windage such as sails or biminis should be removed.
From AOL News, Vacations, Weddings in Jeopardy as Earl Approaches:
(Sept. 2) — Hurricane Earl is churning toward the Eastern Seaboard packing 145-mile-an-hour winds, forcing tens of thousands of vacationers to scrap Labor Day beach plans on North Carolina’s Outer Banks, and putting at least one seaside wedding ceremony in jeopardy.
The National Hurricane Center has issued watches and warnings from North Carolina to Maine, including islands off Massachusetts, where Brian Ahearn and his fiancee are due to wed Saturday, followed by a reception aboard a yacht touring Boston harbor.
“Boston hasn’t had a hurricane in some time, so we don’t know what to expect,” the 31-year-old Ahearn told The Boston Globe. “We have all these contingency plans,” he said, adding that he’s downloaded all sorts of weather applications to nervously track Earl on his smart phone.
“Boston hasn’t had a hurricane in some time, so we don’t know what to expect,” the 31-year-old Ahearn told The Boston Globe. “We have all these contingency plans,” he said, adding that he’s downloaded all sorts of weather applications to nervously track Earl on his smart phone.
The storm is about 355 miles south of Cape Hatteras, N.C., and moving northward quickly, according to the Hurricane Center. “Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion,” it warned ominously.
The hurricane is expected to approach the North Carolina coast later today, and sweep over the Outer Banks with hurricane force winds tonight. Then it’s due to move near or offshore coastal areas of Delaware, Maryland and Virginia on Friday, and approach southeast New England on Friday night, the advisory said.
Evacuating before Hurricane Earl hits | Photo credit: AP
From Associated Pres, Island evacuations start as Earl nears East Coast:
NAGS HEAD, N.C. – Hurricane Earl steamed toward the Eastern Seaboard early Thursday as communities from North Carolina to New England kept a close eye on the forecast, worried that even a slight shift in the storm’s predicted offshore track could put millions of people in the most densely populated part of the country in harm’s way.
Vacationers along North Carolina’s dangerously exposed Outer Banks took advantage of the typical picture-perfect day just before a hurricane arrives to pack their cars and flee inland, cutting short their summer just before Labor Day weekend.
The governors of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland declared states of emergency, sea turtle nests on one beach were scooped up and moved to safety, and the crew of the Navy’s USS Cole rushed to get home to Norfolk, Va., on Wednesday ahead of the bad weather. The destroyer was supposed to return later this week from a seven-month assignment fighting piracy off Somalia.
Farther up the East Coast, emergency officials urged people to have disaster plans and supplies ready and weighed whether to order evacuations as they watched the latest maps from the National Hurricane Center — namely, the “cone of uncertainty” showing the broad path the storm could take.
Earl was expected to reach the North Carolina coast late Thursday and wheel to the northeast, staying offshore while making its way up the Eastern Seaboard. But forecasters said it could move in closer, perhaps coming ashore in North Carolina, crossing New York’s Long Island and passing over the Boston metropolitan area and Cape Cod.
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[...] Vicki McClure Davidson Buzz: As hurricane track prediction is an imperfect science, there is a very slight possibility of significant storm effects in D.C. However, computer models have consistently kept Earl sufficiently far offshore, … [...]