Frugal Café Blog Zone

Posted By Vicki McClure Davidson on November 12, 2010

Swiss cheese holes — some the size of basketballs — riddle this new BBVA Bancomer Research study on the current Hispanic population in Arizona.

There are several glaring, significant omissions from this dubious study, which suspiciously claims that Arizona’s illegal immigration law “could” be responsible for the state now having 100,000 fewer Hispanics than it did prior to SB 1070 being enacted.

Or, it could be because of any number of other factors that the study chooses to not address or explore. At least, not in the many articles I read about it — I was unable to find the report itself anywhere online. I’ll update this post should it surface in the next few days.

Pull out your fondue forks, boys and girls… here are some of the Swiss cheese holes, biases, flaws, and/or fallacious conclusions I spotted from what I could glean from news sources about this inconclusive BBVA Bancomer study. There’s probably a few others that I missed:

Number 1: No methodology for the study is cited, nor a starting point or comparison of dates for the “exodus” study are cited. BBVA Bancomer Research said it “estimated” the numbers — based on what, exactly, is mysteriously left out. Census numbers from 2008 and those from the U.S. Current Population Survey are cited, but the study is fuzzy as to what period it is comparing its reported loss of 100,000 Hispanic/Latino people — the term “start of the year” is offered in one news source, but the reports cited as being used don’t necessarily provide “start of the year” Arizona figures.

Number 2: Yuma, Arizona, which has a significant Latino population (45.67% per the 2000 Census), has suffered greatly during this economic recession. Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Yuma Metro area has one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation, documented at 27.2 percent through September 2010, compared to the 9.6% of the nation and 9.7% average in the state of Arizona during the same period. Citing April 2009 data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics last year ranked Yuma as Number 2 among the 13 U.S. cities that post unemployment rates above 15 percent. Yuma’s unemployment rates were documented at 20.3 percent last year — it’s much worse this year. Yuma’s agricultural workforce, which adjusts to the crop picking season, is cited by the Arizona Department of Commerce as the driving reason for the high unemployment. Also reported by the BLS: the number of people unemployed in Yuma peaked in August 2010 at 28,361, which would be included in the post-SB 1070 population findings and would reasonably influence a spike in the conclusions. With unemployment so high in Yuma, it is a reasonable assumption that many people, regardless of their race or citizenship status, would leave to seek work elsewhere. The high poverty rate may be due to unemployment, as Yuma tops CareerBuilder.com’s list of 20 U.S. cities with the highest unemployment rates. Most of this pertinent information is not mentioned in the study — there is only a glancing mention of unemployment.

Number 3: No attempt was made to establish or clarify whether the Arizona exodus of Hispanics was comprised of predominantly legal or illegal immigrants. The reasonable assumption would be that a huge amount of illegal immigrants would leave Arizona to avoid arrest, but that information is not included. The study lumps all Hispanics into its conclusions, suggesting that legal citizens are also leaving. Whether they are or aren’t can’t be determined by the study. No statistics were provided as to how many leaving the state were members of Mexican’s drug gangs/cartels, human smuggling rings, gun runners, leaders of child prostitution rings, or other dangerous criminals — some of whom, it could be assumed, left because of the high media profile of the new law.

Number 4: Arizona’s economy and its unemployment numbers have been hit especially hard in the construction industry. A significant percentage of construction workers are reportedly immigrants (here legally and illegally), and according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the industry is adjusted seasonally. Population numbers for the same season in previous years are not provided by BBVA Bancomer. Likewise for migrant farm workers and hospitality/tourist industries.

Number 5: BBVA Bancomer Research is based out of Mexico, and there is no information provided that I could locate as to who requested and funded this study (La Raza? City of San Francisco? Billionaire leftist George Soros? Maybe Mexico’s Pres. Felipe Calderón or even Pres. Obama himself? No clue.). Therefore, there’s absolutely no guarantee of a statistically sound, non-partisan reporting of study methodology or results.

Number 6: SB 1070 is not a law targeting the Hispanic population, yet no other illegal immigrant groups were studied. Illegal immigrants from Yemen, Afghanistan, Russia, China, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Nigeria, and other nations leaving Arizona were not included in the BBVA Bancomer Research study. No information on how many white, non-Hispanic people left Arizona during the same period.

Number 7: It was assumed that most of the 100,000 Hispanics (illegal aliens or legal citizens) who left Arizona went to other states. Therefore, a surge somewhere, or several “somewheres,” in Hispanic population should be realized. No information on that is provided by BBVA Bancomer Research.

Number 8: Phoenix has been cited by many studies and reports as the Number 1 major city in the US for illegal-alien-related and Mexican drug cartel kidnappings. A recent gruesome beheading that was related to illegal aliens occurred last month in Chandler, Arizona. This escalating danger could prompt a number of illegal aliens to leave the state, yet is not mentioned at all in the study. It is a highly plausible factor in the Hispanic exodus.

Number 9: Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio has been cracking down on Social Security/ID theft and identity fraud by employees at different Maricopa County businesses, and has arrested many ID thieves who happen to be illegal aliens. He was doing this long before SB 1070 was passed — with or without passage of the controversial SB 1070, identity theft and ID fraud crimes are exploding through the nation. Also, just before the November mid-term elections, Arizona Democratic Senate candidate Randy Parraz (he lost to John McCain) filed a media-grabbing lawsuit against Arpaio for arresting him two years previously. He claimed it was not a publicity stunt… which explains why Parraz waited two whole years to file suit, right?

Number 10: Arizona is bloody hot in July (when SB 1070 went into effect), and many people leave the state during the summer to escape the heat. Typical “snow bird” tourism peaks in Arizona after Christmas and starts to decrease after Easter. Newcomers to the state often leave when they experience their first Arizona summer. Comparing any Arizona summer population, regardless of race, color, or creed, to that of the spring, fall, or winter populations for “exodus proof” is ludicrous. Additionally, there are three Arizona universities that have a Hispanic population, some of whom are out-of-state students. No effort was made to determine how many of the Hispanics who left the state following SB 1070′s launch would be returning to college in the fall.

Too many biases and presumptions from this study, too little hard data. A dart board would be as reliable.

But it sure makes for provocative headlines. And many news sources are grabbing it up.

From KTAR.com, Study: 100,000 Hispanics left AZ after SB1070:

MEXICO CITY – A new study suggests there may be 100,000 fewer Hispanics in Arizona than there were before the debate over the state’s tough new immigration law earlier this year.

BBVA Bancomer Research, which did the study, worked with figures from the U.S. Current Population Survey. The study says the decline could be due to the law known as SB1070, which partly entered into effect in July, or to Arizona’s difficult economic situation.

The study released Wednesday also cites Mexican government figures as saying that 23,380 Mexicans returned from Arizona to Mexico between June and September.

U.S. census figures from 2008 say about 30 percent of people living in Arizona are Hispanic, or about 1.9 million.

The state is appealing a ruling that put on hold parts of the law, which would have allowed police to question the immigration status of those they suspect are in the country illegally.

Immigrants are heavily employed in Arizona’s construction industry, which has suffered – along with the rest of the state’s economy – in the economic downturn.

In that and other studies released at the Global Forum on Migration and Development in the Pacific coast resort of Puerto Vallarta, BBVA Bancomer Research – part of the financial group of the same name – estimated that probably about 720,000 Mexican migrants were unemployed in the United States when the study concluded in late October.

The study also predicts that remittances – the money sent home by migrants working abroad – won’t recover their peak value of about $26 billion until 2012 or 2013.

Remittances fell in 2008 and 2009, largely because of the U.S. slowdown.

Remittances are Mexico’s second-largest source of foreign income after oil exports. Nearly all of the money comes from the U.S., where nearly 12 million Mexicans live.

The research center also estimated that remittances were dwarfed by the amount of money Mexican migrants paid in taxes in the United States – about $53 billion in 2008.

From Montreal Gazette, Arizona immigration law provoked exodus of Hispanics: Study:

PUERTO VALLARTA, Mexico – A controversial immigration law in Arizona has likely provoked the voluntary departure of 100,000 Hispanics from the southern U.S. state, according to a study released Wednesday.

“Several months after the law was applied, it’s possible to observe a lower number of Hispanics in that area of America. We estimate there are 100,000 less Hispanics compared to the start of 2010,” said the report by the private BBVA Bancomer foundation, released at the two-day Global Forum on Migration and Development, in the Pacific resort of Puerto Vallarta.

“It’s possible that this reduction is largely due to the potential application of the law,” the report said.

It was unclear where those who left Arizona had gone, but most were probably elsewhere in the United States, it added.

Arizona’s governor in July approved a law giving police broader powers to pursue illegal immigrants, but a federal judge temporarily blocked some of its more controversial provisions, including making it a crime not to carry proper papers.

About 30 per cent of Arizona’s 6.6 million people are Hispanic, according to U.S. census data. One third of them are foreign born, including the estimated 460,000 illegal immigrants in the state.

Additional:
NewsMax: Gov. Perry: Feds Must Secure Borders, Deal With Illegals Already Here
Riehl World View: Huge Illegal Immigration Smuggling Cell Busted in Arizona
Gateway Pundit: Governor Rick Perry: This Administration and This Congress Are “Abject Failures” On Securing Border (Video) and Texas National Guardsman Shot to Death in Mexico and Good News! Arizona Welcomes Immigrants…Says The New York Times and Hypocrisy Alert: Mexico Builds Border Fence on Its Southern Border and Severed Head of Official Investigating Murdered American Jet-Skier Delivered to Mexican Military – In a Suitcase
Frugal Café Blog Zone: “Need Boots on the Ground”: Texas Gov. Perry Speaks Out Against the “Abject Failures” of Congress & Obama in the Securing of Our Borders (video) and Busted: Mexican Drug Cartel Arrests Made… Not in Arizona or Texas, but in Atlanta and Horror in Arizona: Chandler, AZ Beheading Elevates Illegal Immigrant Mexican Drug Cartel Fears in State and Escalation of Deaths of Children in Mexico Killed by Mexican Drug Cartel Wars: More Than 1,200 Kids Murdered Since 2006, Thousands More Mutilated, Crippled (video) and More Gun Battles in Mexico: Soldiers Kill 30 Drug Cartel Members Near US Border, Texas Requests Used MC-12 Aircraft for Border Protection and Medical Update on Widow of Murdered AZ Rancher, Sue Krentz, and Friend After Being Hit by Latino DUI Driver and Beheading: Mexican Army Receives Severed Head, Identified as Police Investigator Working on Falcon Lake’s Mexican Pirate Shooting of American David Hartley (video) and Mexican Pirate Suspects Named, Wife Tiffany’s Story Corroborated, Search for Body of David Hartley in Falcon Lake Continues (video) and Falcon Lake Tragedy: American Shooting Victim David Hartley Still Not Found, Mexican Drug Cartel Pirates Terrorizing Texas Lake (video) and Mexican Pirates Attack Sightseeing Couple at Texas Falcon Lake — Husband Shot in Head, Feared to Have Been Killed (video) and Warnings Issued: Armed Mexican Drug Cartel Pirates in Texas Lake… Terrorizing & Robbing US Citizens Who Are Fishing & Boating in Falcon Lake (video) and Gruesome: More Decapitated Bodies in Mexico — Four Headless, Mutilated Bodies Hung by Their Feet from Bridge as Drug Lord’s Message (video)
Mcnorman’s Weblog: Found On Lake and The Murder Of David Michael Hartley UPDATE: Surprise! Mexico Is NOT Cooperating
Michelle Malkin: Fort Hood massacre: One year later and Colin Powell brags: I can see illegal aliens inside my house and Update on Arizona rancher Robert Krentz murder case
CNS News: 1,200 Children Killed by Cartel Violence in Mexico Since 2006

Categories: Business & Economy, Government, Illegal Immigration, Social and Political Climate, US Borders
Tags: Arizona, Arizona immigration law, Arizona Immigration Law SB1070, BBVA Bancomer, BBVA Bancomer Research, BBVA Bancomer Research study, economic recession, exodus, Hispanic, Hispanic exodus, Hispanic population, ID fraud, ID theft, Illegal Immigration, Joe Arpaio, Latino, Maricopa County, Maricopa County Sheriff's Department, Mexican President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, Mexico, Pres. Felipe Calderón, Randy Parraz, SB 1070, SB1070, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, unemployment, US border, Yuma, Yuma Arizona